2010 Home Run predictions
April 5, 2010
Twins vs Rangers 2008
So last year was an exciting offensive season with the Twins hitting a lot of long balls (if only there weren’t so many solo shots).
Looking back on last years predictions, I can have the satisfaction of knowing I was fairly close on all of them. OK, that is a outright lie, but who knew Joe Mauer was going to become the power hitter last year.
So looking to the future, the Twins have probably the best line up in all of baseball. Unless there is bad spell of injuries, we can expect the number of home runs to increase once again this season.
Last season the Twins finished the season with 172 home runs. Although it was more then 70 home runs less then the World Series New York Yankees, it was a respectable number given the difference between the two ball parks.
The Twins head into a new ball park that was designed to be “hitter neutral”, but only time will tell if this is true of the ball park in the future.
With all that said, lets break down the numbers. Of course when I say that, we are not using any saber-metrics, but only our “gut” instincts.
Justin Morneau- Finishing the year about a month prematurely due to a fractured back, Morneau struggled in the last few weeks of the season. Even though he slumped before his injury, he was still on target to lead the team in home runs and RBI’s. Morneau finished last year with 30 HR’s and so far he has really struggled. Look for Morneau to recover to his old form within a months time. He is sure to get more rest this season, so we are going to give him a prediction of 32 home runs this year.
Joe Mauer- with almost a full month off due to an off season surgery, Joe Mauer surprised everyone with his dramatic change in becoming a home run hitter. Chastised most his career for generating a batting title with singles, Mauer showed everyone with his first at bat of 2009 that he is to be a home run threat in the future.
Mauer finished 2009 by almost tripling our expectations and has kept his form all through the off season. Look for a healthy Mauer to continue to slug out some runs in 2010. We are predicting about 30 home runs for the number 3 hitter.
Jason Kubel- was one of the best hitters that nobody but Twins fan knew about. He exceeded our wildest expectations with 28 home runs last year. We expect Kubel to continue to be a threat, but with more defense this year, his numbers might reflect negatively depending if his knees can hold up. He will also have to share some DH duties with newly signed Jim Thome occasionally. We are going to predict a small decline for the “Beast” in 2010 with only 26 home runs.
Michael Cuddyer- was the iron man of 2009 following an injury plagued 2008 season. The good season forced the Twins to pick up his option as he showed he was much more then just a right fielder after taking over first base for an injured Morneau. We expect more good thing from Cuddyer and although he may not reach 32 HR’s like in 2009, we are expecting at least 30 from the fan favorite.
Delmon Young- has long been touted as the hitter that belts the balls the farthest in pre-game, but that very rarely carried over to the game. Young came on strong after getting the regular starting nod last year and his renewed attitude and physical shape will hopefully be the start of a new Delmon Young. We are going to raise the bar on the young left fielder and predict he hits 8 HR’s better then last years 12 total.
Jim Thome- is a veteran ball player that has always given the Twins fits. Now it is his turn to help the Twins. Thome had 23 HR’s while with the White Sox, but failed to hit any home runs while with the Los Angeles Dodgers. It was a strange move that never benefited the player or the organization. Look for Thome to continue to hit the long ball for the Twins. We will predict the slugger belts in two dozen home runs for the Twins before the end of the year.
Denard Span- has never really been known for his power, but he can still contribute in 2010. Span is the first Twin to hit a home run at Target Field (pre-season vs. the Cardinals) and we have hopes that the lead off man can hit almost a dozen in 2010.
JJ Hady- was picked up from the Brewer’s for CF Carlos Gomez right after the 2009 regular season. Although he is not an overpowering home run hitter, he is another player we are hoping hits about a dozen dingers in 2010.
Orlando Hudson is another great off season pickup and should hit about 9 home runs in 2010.
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